Figure 8 Shape Ac Power

Sartorius speaks of Spanish administrative

The local elections, involving 35 million Spaniards, do not punish the left or right: the popular make overtaking in the absolute number of votes (around 160 thousand more) and the government socialists win.
The government may be satisfied, because if the voters had accepted the PP's attempt to convert the election into a referendum on the terrorist policy of the executive, this would have been substantially adopted. A vote
experienced by the parties as a test of the next policy but used by 35 million voters to express their views on local contexts in which it is incurred.

We spoke with Nicolás Sartorius, executive vice president of Fondacion Alternatives, knowledge of politics (and election data). Historical figure of the left and trade unions in Spain, no less authoritative and enlightening. This text is an extended version of the interview published on Europe.

"You can make several reflections. Has the abstention by about three points, indicating a weariness of a sector of the electorate, especially Catalonia and Andalusia. The PP won votes in absolute terms, has achieved 160 thousand more. Increased as the PSOE in the elect, who will rule on the number of capitals and the Autonomous Communities. The PP lost 14 capitals and wins two, loses absolute majority in all three areas are very important, Navarra, Balearic and Canary Islands, where the PSOE could govern in coalition with other forces. The PSOE has all the cities of Galicia and Catalonia, it wins in the País Vasco and Navarra, in a very "sensitive" where the receding Pp. While in Madrid had a very important success, as in Valencia, which already controlled territories. My opinion is that from the point of view of territorial power, the result is good for the PSOE and the PP consoles himself with the absolute number of votes. "

The vote may be considered a testing policy?
The PP has wanted to take a national test, but in reality people voted thinking of the territory. Exploring the data is notes, studying the data we see that it is very varaiato election because the vote is local and have not taken into account in the general debate.

parties have also clashed on anti-terrorism policy, not only because they voted in the País Vasco, with what results?
must say that from this point of view neither of them got what he wanted. The PP did not have a clear punishment vote for PSOE, that if it were not for Madrid, is out everywhere.

Voting in Navarre, as reflected on the national debate on anti-terrorist policies. The
reflected in the sense that Navarre did not believe the propaganda of the right, that if you voted right Navarre would become part of the País Vasco and would have lost its identity. And they punished the PP Navarre, the UPN for the first time, the PP lost the absolute majority and the most likely thing is that it will rule. In Galicia, Extremadura, Catalonia, the power of the PSOE increased despite Zapatero's anti-terrorism policy had been portrayed as a disaster for the country. People do not believe it.

How to Read to abstain?
was very different, depending on the territories. In Navarra, there was a huge participation [73%, two points more than in 2003 - Ed], there was an abstention especially in Andalusia and Catalonia: the three points above are mostly from there. It can have many causes. There is one technique, which always occurs, and is around 30%. In municipal elections, as in this case, there may be local reasons, may be a product of corruption or political dynamics of local politics. Then there can be produced by an abstention crispación, ie the systematic confrontation between parties, leading some voters to abstain, which does not consider production disputes between parties. As for Catalonia, I think it is due to the statutory process, in which the attitude of the parties has not been edifying, a sector that has grown tired Catalan electorate who abstained. And election fatigue, are followed by four consultations, and there were no more autonomic. Abstention was high where there was no pulling of the autonomic and hit both parties.

Back to snowball popular in Madrid ...
I believe that the Socialist Party made major mistakes. For a long time, the Socialist Federation of Madrid has continued infighting in the party there are battles that go on for many years. Then, the candidates were not better than a goal as Madrid, and has not presented a project that could attract many areas of the left. It is a combination of factors: you do not have a good candidate, you have a project and the party behind it is not strong: the failure is assured.

general election held in March, as you will, in the light of these results?
I think the PP will continue the same policy of confrontation and opposition to the government lasts, although it is likely that the leader, Mariano Rajoy, to take more moderate attitudes verbally.
The government will attempt to use these months to emphasize the political and social rights. Above all, use the next budget to make a policy advanced in the field. Will focus on economic aspects social, which go well, and will seek to recover those areas that abstained this time. It is likely that the abstention policy will be much lower, I do not think the government should be especially worried.
The PSOE has to take measures, including vigorous in cases such as Madrid, but the government is addressing the general with a much stronger position on the floor and municipal autonomy. And to win the policy is very important to have good power and municipal autonomy.